This article is part of the Analytical Reporting to Improve the Federation (ARIF) project
With longstanding Oromo political demands unmet, negotiations remain stalled.
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lmost one year after peace talks between the federal government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) made progress but ultimately failed, there is still no end in sight to the devastating conflict in Oromia.
The violent political struggle in Ethiopia’s most-populous region revolves around Oromo demands for greater political representation and recognition of their rights.
Conflict has been ongoing since the authorities’ 2018 violation of an agreement with the Oromo Liberation Front—a political party that has fought for Oromo right for half a century—regarding its return from exile. That led to growth in the OLA insurgency in western and southern Oromia. The government responded with large-scale military operations, including airstrikes, extrajudicial killings, and mass arrests.
Last year, talks began in Tanzania between the government and the OLA, which began as the armed wing of the OLF before formally splitting from the party. Despite a reported understanding on core political issues, no agreement was reached to end the conflict.
The second round took place in November 2023, with, encouragingly, high-ranking OLA commanders in attendance. Those efforts foundered on power-sharing arrangements. However, that is just the latest dispute—conflict in Oromia has deep historical, political, and socio-economic roots.
Oromo Rights
Many Oromos have long felt marginalized and excluded from mainstream politics, leading to similar demands from opposition parties. The OLA, in its manifesto, says it aims to establish a government through elections and to ensure the full recognition of the Oromo language, culture, and history. The group also emphasizes the need to end the exploitation of Oromia’s natural and human resources, which it says has continued unabated since Ethiopia’s imperial days.
Another key OLA demand is the recognition of autonomous Addis Ababa/Finfinnee as an integral part of Oromia. The group argues that the city holds deep historical and cultural significance to Oromos and that the current administrative structure and the treatment of Oromos are unjust.
The OLA’s manifesto criticizes certain federal education policies as undermining the Oromo language in Oromia. It claims that the few gains made towards respecting the Oromo language and culture are being reversed.
Devastated Region
Over the last five years in particular, the conflict in Oromia has caused immense suffering and devastation. The people of the region have endured violence, displacement, and economic hardship. Several areas face a dire humanitarian crisis.
Over the course of 2022 alone, clashes in Western Oromia and along the border with Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz regions led to the displacement of approximately 740,000 people. In Southern Oromia, especially in Guji and West Guji, clashes coupled with drought affected over 3.5 million people.
The conflict and insecurity have severely hindered access to basic services and constrained aid delivery. Large parts of Oromia have been affected by armed clashes, making it difficult for aid organizations to operate. As a result, there was a 50 percent reduction in the delivery of aid to the region.
Public infrastructure such as health facilities and schools have been destroyed, compounding the difficulties. Deadly diseases such as malaria have flourished.
Centralized Rule
The mismanagement of reform since 2018 has been a key cause of the violence, especially Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s decision to dissolve the regional chapters of the ruling coalition. The dissatisfaction among many Oromos stems from longstanding grievances, however. The Oromo Protests from 2014 to 2018 were a response to those and a call for change and justice. The reform process, instead of addressing these issues, has been marked by an increased crackdown on opposition.
Milkessa Gemechu, a now exiled former member of the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and a prominent figure in the reform movement that took power in 2018, believes that the decision to dissolve the regional chapters of the EPRDF coalition and form the national Prosperity Party (PP) stripped the parties of their autonomy and concentrated power in the hands of the central government. This centralization, according to Milkessa, undermined the promised democratization. He recommends that a free and fair election should be held in Oromia.
Milkessa says that the ruling party, PP, is not governing in Oromo interests despite the prominence of Oromos in leadership positions. He emphasizes that the fundamental demands of the Oromo people— including genuine power-sharing and respect for rights—have yet to be adequately addressed.
Dialogue Needed
Geresu Tufa, a political analyst, believes mistakes were made on the aftermath of the period of Oromo protests when opposition forces and elements within the ruling coalition united to overthrow the dominant Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). He criticized what he perceived as a lack of vision after achieving this goal. There was a lack of clarity on how to establish an inclusive national government amidst conflicting narratives, he said.
Regarding the ongoing conflict between the government and the OLA, Geresu pointed out that the two sides do not fundamentally differ in ideology, but rather continue to struggle for power.
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Geresu also commented on the social cohesion at a national level, describing it as troubled and filled with disagreements. These range from power sharing to the absence of a unifying national vision. Ethiopia, he asserted, is a country in transition, facing multiple challenges as it seeks to redefine its identity and overcome historical injustice.
According to Geresu, the Oromo people’s demands for political and economic inclusion are legitimate, and that inclusive dialogue is the only way out. The way forward requires all stakeholders to come to the table and rectify historical privileges that have contributed to the marginalization of certain ethnic groups. This would involve acknowledging historical injustices, promoting dialogue, and pursuing reconciliation to foster a more inclusive and united society.
Persistent Violence
For now, that sort of harmonious outcome is still a distant dream. The dialogue initiated between federal authorities and the OLA in Zanzibar during April 2023 stirred expectations of a possible resolution to the unrest. Regrettably, the failed negotiations resulted in the continuation of violence.
In December 2023, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission disclosed that over 50 civilians were victims of deadly attacks within Oromia. Additionally, the commission reported an additional 30 casualties in Oromia’s Arsi zone due to a series of assaults.
Local authorities in Oromia threw accusations against the OLA for perpetrating what they described as “horrendous and brutal” attacks targeting numerous civilians in the Arsi Zone. However, specific details regarding the timeline of these assaults were not provided.
Throughout 2024, the Oromia government and OLA continue trading blame for ongoing violence against civilians in the region. The OLA is accused of widespread kidnappings for ransom throughout Oromia, including near to the capital.
Correcting Mistakes
The Oromia spokesperson has suggested the government is trying to compel OLA into fresh talks. For new negotiations to succeed, they would have to learn from the failings last year.
According to diplomatic sources cited by a local news outlet, the OLA presented proposals for all political parties in Oromia to be included in the government. In contrast, the government just wanted a deal with the OLA, as it achieved with the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement with the TPLF in November 2022.
The OLA has accused the government of attempting to coopt its leadership. In response, the federal government claimed that the OLA failed to raise substantive issues beyond long-standing demands that had already been addressed for not just the Oromo community but other ethnicities as well. Furthermore, it accused the OLA of attempting to forcibly seize state power.
Although a deal wasn’t reached, the commencement of talks between the government and the OLA offered a ray of hope for people in Oromia. It remains a critical moment that demands determination, open-mindedness, and commitment to finding common ground—and so peace.
Bate Urgessa Interview
In the months before his tragic killing, Ethiopia Insight interviewed Bate Urgessa, a prominent figure within the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). He spoke about the party’s policies and objectives, shedding light on its stance amidst the conflict in Oromia.
He said the OLF’s primary objective was establishing an all-encompassing transitional arrangement until authentic elections can be conducted. He highlighted concerns regarding the ruling party’s control over the federal security apparatus and the electoral board.
Central to Bate’s discourse was the assertion that, if elected, the OLF would earnestly address popular concerns. He emphasized the party’s commitment to advocating for the right to self-determination, ensuring equitable power sharing, and fostering regional autonomy within the federal system.
“We are not aiming to overhaul existing laws, but rather propose necessary amendments,” stated Bate.
Among them is the inclusion of Afaan Oromo as a federal working language. Additionally, the OLF intends to make the administrations of Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa accountable to the Oromia regional government, a significant alteration to the constitutional framework.
Regarding the rights of non-Oromo residents in those cities, Bate underscored the constitutional guarantee of minority rights under majority rule. He affirmed that Amharic speakers, for example, would retain access to public services in their language, deeming this “not up for debate.”
He explained how in diverse cities like Adama, it is possible for non-Oromo residents of the city to elect representatives to the city council and for the representative of that constituency to be able to speak in their own language. He explained that the same applies in the Oromia regional council.
On the essence of constitutional amendments, Bate emphasized that popular sovereignty remained an absolute principle. He stressed that border disputes should be resolved through referendums, with a 50 percent majority vote required.
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