Ethiopia’s endless constitutional chasm and authoritarian abyss

This article is part of the Analytical Reporting to Improve the Federation (ARIF) project.

Both a lack of democracy and a divisive founding document stand resolutely in the way of peace.

Amid unrelenting turmoil, the Prosperity Party government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is increasingly raising the idea of constitutional reform to mend divides and bring a lasting peace.

Ethiopia’s 1995 constitution has been a cause of division partly due to its establishment of an ethno-linguistic based state structure and the extent of autonomy—which includes a secession right—granted to ethnic communities.

This gave rise to two diverging viewpoints: ethno-nationalists argue that the system holds Ethiopia together by granting autonomy to previously violently assimilated peoples; whereas their opponents criticize it for promoting group rights at the expense of national unity and argue it is the source of today’s violent ethnic polarization.

Promisingly, a consensus exists regarding the need for constitutional amendment with even some proponents of the system calling for changes. However, finding a consensus on those alterations and the form of the Ethiopian state is extremely difficult—and made even more tricky by the prevailing political chaos. 

Nonetheless, according to Abiy’s statement to parliament on February, his administration, unlike its predecessor, accepts the legitimacy of calls for amendments and is making efforts to resolve the constitutional dilemma. (Hardly a surprise to ethnonationalist critics who accuse him of revering Ethiopia’s imperial era.)

“The presence of an attitude to accept the question by itself makes for 50 percent of the answer…Our aspiration is for opposing sides to come to a dialogue and concede to the ideas of one another, or in the absence of consensus, hold a referendum to create a constitution that can withstand administration change,” he said.

Abiy claimed that the widespread lack of acceptance of the constitution is mainly due to the non-inclusive nature of constitution-making process in the early 1990s after the downfall of the Derg regime; others would argue that it is the substance of the articles.

Constitutional concerns are particularly apparent in Amhara where, ever since the worsening of the conflict in the region in August last year, the region’s officials claim to be pursuing the amendments that their rebelling constituents demand.

Yet the dangers of reform can be seen by the opposing positions on the issue adopted by Amhara and Oromo nationalist rebels.

Overall, critics of the system— particularly Amharas, including the region’s siting President—argue the constitution is too ethnocentric and hence in need of reform to preserve a dwindling national unity; whereas supporters of the system—it is relatively popular in Oromia—see this as an attempt to water down hard-won self-rule rights.

The prospect of these opposing sides making concessions appears minimal, and in the absence of consensus the government’s chosen alternative of holding a referendum is destined to leave many unsatisfied.¹

What’s more, even if some form of constitutional amendment comes to pass, there’s a broad skepticism that it would ease the violent political divides. In fact, some politicians and experts are concerned that a mishandled amendment process could push the current violence into all-out civil war of the type that has destroyed neighboring Sudan.

Constitutional Divide

Ethiopia’s politics suffer from a twofold constitutional predicament.

On the one hand, there’s a wide and rancorous division over several critical aspects of the founding document, relating to ethnolinguistic state formation, secession rights, and balancing ethnic group rights with national interests, among others. 

On the other, many politicians and experts, see the prevailing unconstitutional governing practices as the primary source of Ethiopia’s political woes, hence in need of addressing prior to initiating constitutional amendments.

Adem Kassie, a constitutional expert from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), told Ethiopia Insight, “Ethiopia currently faces two major political challenges, the first of which is building a democracy, and secondly, reaching a consensus on what form of state the country should be.”     

Experts and politicians allege that the lack of democracy and the government’s failure to abide by the constitution means citizens are prevented from advancing their economic and political interests through peaceful means, driving many to armed struggle—though it is rare in Ethiopia to hear political actors express explicit understanding of their opponents’ grievances.

Mulatu Gemechu, a senior member of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) believes the absence of democracy to be the leading cause of political violence. “The nation’s attempt to exercise federalism in the absence of a democracy and a severe rights violation is what inevitably led to a perpetual cycle of violence, otherwise a constitutional division alone wouldn’t cause such a level of bloodshed.”

At this stage, the demands of armed groups and their supporters is more basic than a constitutional amendment. Instead, they long for the ability to elect their rulers and an end to the violation of their rights with impunity. According to Mulatu, as long as a democratic order and the rule of law are missing, any constitutional change will be futile.

Haileyesus Taye, director of the Center for Constitution and Federalism Training at the House of Federation (HoF), also considers unconstitutionality to be at the top of Ethiopia’s problems.

“The non-implementation of the constitution is the main source of political violence. For instance, the war in Amhara region is said to arise from the people’s denied equitable representation and ability to exercise their rights, yet such circumstances aren’t attributable to a fault within the constitution,” he said.²

Flawed Federalism

Conversely, there are those who regard the divisive aspect of ethnic federalism and other shortcomings of the constitution to be at the core of Ethiopia’s political disorder. They argue, constitutional amendment is equally critical as democracy and can help bring peace to the nation.

Melaku Belay, head of a legal affairs department at the opposition All Ethiopian Unity Party, sees an ethnocentric constitution with a “subjugator-subjugated” narrative as primarily responsible for the current turmoil.

He believes that unconstitutionality is partly attributable to shortcomings within the founding document: “The constitution left a gap where forces aimed at keeping the nation divided can act without accountability. People residing outside of their region are subjected to great harm as they’re considered outsiders; regional borders exist for administrative convenience, yet they’re abused to exclusively benefit singular ethnicities while keeping others away.”

Likewise, Gebru Berhe, chairman of the Ethiopian Democratic Unity Party, views the divisiveness of the constitution to have largely contributed to the prevailing instability.

Both unconstitutionality and a constitutional divide have been a centerpiece of Ethiopia’s political debate for the past three decades, yet it was following the transition of 2018 when the splits turned increasingly violent, leading to today’s political wars.

The Prosperity Party administration has an alternative view of how we got to this state. Abiy and other officials speak of “positive peace” and “negative peace”. They say their predecessor managed to maintain peace only through force and oppression while they allowed political freedom that led to decades of suppressed grievances boiling over.

With regard to armed groups in Amhara and Oromia, the government claim to have made unrelenting effort to broker peace, and depicts both as extremists.

In the February parliament session, Abiy said using violence for political means had become customary due to the violent formation of the Ethiopian state, that the culture of negotiation is diminishing, and that spoilers of peace efforts are prevalent.

The premier urged rebels in Amhara and Oromia to put down their arms and engage in peaceful struggle.³ Opponents cast doubt on this narrative, pointing to their colleagues who had been detained despite engaging only in peaceful political activity.⁴

Outlying Amhara

Ethiopia’s 1995 constitution established a federation where member states are defined along ethno-linguistic lines. The system referred to as ethnic or multinational federalism enshrined sovereign power in the so-called “Nations, Nationalities and Peoples”.

Amhara elites are largely in favor of overhauling the constitution which they see as not only divisive but also containing rhetoric that depicts Amharas as historical subjugators.

They argue such narratives are the main driving force behind the violence perpetuated against Amharas in Oromia and elsewhere.

Soon after conflict erupted in Amhara last year, the regional administration joined in the criticism of the constitution. Unprecedentedly, during a discussion panel in early February at the region’s capital, Bahir Dar, a recently appointed regional president, Arega Kebede, voiced a deepened criticism of the constitution, particularly how it undermined national identity.   

“Currently a consensus has been reached that the constitution is based upon distorted narratives. It focuses on ethnic identity instead of strengthening Ethiopian unity and contains notions which disintegrate the main umbrella that is Ethiopianism,” he said.

Though he didn’t identify them, the regional head revealed that the particular constitutional provisions which need to be amended have already been identified and discussed by the Prosperity Party and Executive Committee. “Sorting the details of the amendment will be our undertaking, which Amhara intellectuals and the region’s administration ought to contribute to.”

Still, some suspect such statements lack sincerity.     

“Such criticisms are likely politically motivated and the result of the regional administration’s attempt to appeal to the public and thereby degrade the popularity and support which fighters in the region are gaining,” said Haileyesus from the federalism center.

Likewise, OFC’s Mulatu is of the opinion that the issue of constitutional amendment is being used to distract from the lack of democracy and rule of law.

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Adem, from International IDEA, presents an even more sinister motive. He thinks the Amhara aspiration of constitutional reform is being used by the Prosperity administration in a bid to consolidate power under the flag of national unity.⁵

Furthermore, what used to be Amhara’s agenda is now also becoming that of many Oromo elites, for a parallel but different reason, he claimed. “The Oromo-led central government is pushing for a national unity narrative likely because it sees the current ethnocentric system to be an obstacle from expanding and solidifying Oromos’ power dominance.”

“Confident in their number and that the Oromo dominance of the center will persist, Abiy and many Oromo elites within as well as outside of Prosperity aims to alter ethnic federalism with a more unitary form of government as that would ultimately garner them more power,” said Adem.

Elusive Middle

Regardless of the rationales, it now seems plausible that revisions will occur, though how is by no means settled. A pathway has been set out by the Prime Minister but there’s been little discussions of the substance of amendments.

However, given the prevailing political tension in addition to polarized views on the constitution, many are skeptical if consensus can be achieved.

Bate Urgessa, a political officer of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), was recently assassinated in his hometown of Meki. Before that tragedy back in April, he told Ethiopia Insight that consensus was “nearly impossible” under current circumstances.

“On one hand there’s a substantial interest towards ultranationalism from Amhara, on the other, in Oromia there’s a strong support to exercise constitutional self-determination right to a full extent, including a considerable aspiration for secession,” he explained.

He added that ethnic self-rule is popular in Tigray, Somali region and elsewhere, so doing away with those rights would not gain sufficient regional support.

Adem, however, thinks it’s likely to see a reform towards a stronger central government occur in the near future, considering the government’s aspiration for such reform. He said the amendment could lead to changes to the preamble, protection to ethnicities residing outside of their region, criteria for establishing new regions, ethnic-based establishment of political parties, and the secession right, among others.

Nonetheless, there’s an apparent need to balance ethnic self-rule rights with national interest.  To this effect, Haileyesus sees a need to regulate self-determination: “A certain criterion needs to be introduced on the uncapped right of nations, nationalities and peoples to establish their own regions at any time. Considering the existence of 76 such groups, population size, land mass, and economic potential must be taken into account in [decisions regarding] establishing new regions.”

Haileyesus also sees a need for amending any regional constitution that depicts a single ethnicity as the owner of the region.⁶

Unity Favored

Although the government hasn’t yet disclosed what constitutional changes it aspires for, statements suggest it favors more power for the federal government vis-à-vis its regional counterparts.  Many think Abiy’s government wants to introduce a powerful, directly elected president.

Addressing Prosperity Party’s Central Committee in late January, Abiy stated: “In the past, regions were indirectly led by the center, however during an executive assessment meeting, it was raised that the complete autonomy of regions is resulting in their abuse of power, and hence some assimilation is necessary.”

He added that the nation spent the past 60 years in a cycle of oppression but what was introduced as a solution instead exacerbated the challenges.

Additionally, the premier’s aspiration for national unity as well as his integrationist philosophies “Medemer” and “Grand Narrative” have been seen by some as looming threats to ethnic self-rule rights.    

Ethiopia’s constitutional divide has grown more visible in recent years as talk of amendments has increased. Although tensions could dial down if the divide over can somehow be narrowed, a mishandled amendment could exacerbate violence.

The challenges of reaching a consensus cannot be overstated given the unwillingness to concede to one another’s interest. In the midst of an unrelenting political war, a ‘give and take’ approach doesn’t appeal. Instead, both groups at war with the state see themselves in a zero-sum existential struggle.

Many politicians therefore insist a certain level of stability should be achieved before undertaking a task of this magnitude. Currently, all attempts for peace have been abandoned by the state as well as the insurgent groups in Amhara and Oromia, meaning there is no end in sight to the instability.  

Nonetheless, officials say a controversial and struggling national dialogue is the way to reach consensus on national issues, including the constitution. But the national dialogue cannot reasonably be expected to achieve national consensus, not least because some opposition parties have boycotted and, although the commission has attempted to bring armed groups to the dialogue, it hasn’t received a positive response from the fighters.⁷

This raises the prospect of a disingenuous dialogue being used as a pretense to pass a constitutional amendment in the absence of true consensus. Ultimately, that could result in worsening an already precarious situation, sending the nation into a wider civil war.  

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This is the author’s viewpoint. However, Ethiopia Insight will correct clear factual errors.

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