MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met in Addis Ababa on Saturday, agreeing to fully restore diplomatic relations after a year-long dispute marked by heated exchanges and accusations of sovereignty violations.
Mohamud, who participated in a meeting in Uganda earlier the same day, flew to Addis Ababa just hours later, following an invitation from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, according to his office.
In a joint communique, the two leaders agreed to restore full diplomatic representation in their respective capitals. This decision follows the expulsion of Ethiopian diplomats from Mogadishu and the order to close Ethiopia’s consulates in Garowe and Hargeisa last year.
The rift was sparked by a controversial sea access agreement Ethiopia signed with the breakaway region of Somaliland, which Somalia condemned as an infringement on its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Initially, the Somali government insisted it would not engage with Ethiopia unless the agreement was retracted. However, Somalia reversed its position in December under pressure from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who brokered a deal between the two nations.
During their high-stakes meeting, Mohamud and Abiy agreed to enhance security cooperation, instructing relevant agencies to collaborate more effectively in combating extremist groups in the region. They also discussed strengthening trade relations, building joint infrastructure, and fostering investment to promote the prosperity of both countries.
This marked their second meeting after nearly a year of strained relations. The two leaders expressed a commitment to building on the spirit of the Ankara Declaration, which seeks to establish commercial models for Ethiopia’s access to Somalia’s coastline, including lease agreements and contracts.
On the same day, Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi met with his Egyptian and Eritrean counterparts in Cairo, where they agreed to intensify cooperation on regional security. This move adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile diplomatic and geopolitical landscape, particularly with the ongoing rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia. In this precarious balance, Somalia appears to be caught in the crossfire, reduced to little more than cannon fodder in the larger geopolitical game between the two rivals. Somalia’s position remains uncertain, raising doubts about whether it is truly pursuing reconciliation with Addis Ababa or simply playing a game of attrition—an arena in which Ethiopia has long proven adept.
Another area of uncertainty is Somalia’s position on the planned deployment of Egyptian forces within its borders. Ethiopia has unequivocally rejected the potential arrival of Egyptian troops, characterizing their deployment as an imminent threat to both its national security and regional stability.
Mohamud’s visit to Addis Ababa has sent shockwaves through his support base, deeply disappointing those who backed him during the year-long diplomatic standoff with Ethiopia. His engagement with Addis Ababa has significantly eroded the popular backing he had cultivated, with critics accusing him of betrayal. They argue that his decision to engage with Ethiopia directly contradicts his earlier commitment to defending Somalia’s territorial integrity and countering Ethiopia’s ambitions.
Former officials and analysts caution that Ethiopia’s long-term strategy is to gradually isolate Somalia’s leadership from its domestic support, thereby eroding internal cohesion before resuming its efforts to destabilize the country and persistently undermine Somalia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. They highlight Ethiopia’s success in employing attrition tactics during the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations with Egypt and Sudan, which ultimately left the two nations to grapple with the dam’s completion after years of protracted and unproductive talks.
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