By Nuur Mohamud Sheekh @NuursViews
Addis Abeba – The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden stand at a pivotal moment in their history. Without a deliberate commitment to regional cooperation, the area risks descending into deeper instability, undermining maritime security, trade, and the stability of the wider region, and countries like Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia. However, with concerted efforts by the region’s states, this vital corridor can emerge as a global model for collaboration and shared progress, driven and sustained by its own people.
The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden represent one of the world’s most strategically significant maritime corridors. Spanning from the Suez Canal to the Arabian Sea, they are a vital artery of global trade, carrying 10–15% of the world’s commerce, including critical oil exports, and accounting for 30% of global container shipping volumes. Yet, this critical waterway remains fraught with competing interests, vulnerabilities, external intervention, and untapped potential.
A Regional Imperative for Maritime Cooperation
Ethiopia, a one-time Red Sea country, and now the most populous landlocked country in the region after separation from Eritrea, requires the urgent need for sustainable, cooperative maritime access. Its reliance on Djibouti’s ports is essential but insufficient for its growing needs. Broadening this access through regional collaboration with Eritrea, Kenya, and Somalia could establish a more resilient and diversified framework. Djibouti’s commitment to accommodating Ethiopia’s maritime needs, Somalia’s offer of sea access, and initiatives such as the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor reflect a promising spirit of regional cooperation. These efforts must evolve into a broader framework that includes shared infrastructure, streamlined customs systems, and joint economic zones to benefit the entire region. In the long run, such a framework will lay a strong basis for regional economic integration too.
However, the durability of these efforts depends on the principle of regional ownership. External actors should support, not dictate, the region’s path forward. External solutions imposed without the consent and leadership of regional states risk exacerbating tensions and undermining the sustainability of progress.
The Red Sea Arena: Strength Through Unity
Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, and Somalia are central to the stability, or instability, of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. As stewards of this critical maritime corridor, these nations must lead the effort to create an inclusive and balanced framework for governance and cooperation.
Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan, with their strategic positions hold immense potential to foster multilateral collaboration rather than pursue unilateral advantages. Somalia’s recovery, though fragile, requires robust support to strengthen its maritime governance and institutional capacities. Sudan, grappling with internal conflict, must be guided back to stability to ensure its constructive participation in the region’s future.
The Arabian Peninsula countries and Israel have an essential role to play, particularly in fostering a cooperative security environment.
Yet, external interventions by actors such as the UAE, Russia, and Iran have at times amplified tensions and rivalries. To prevent the Red Sea from becoming a battleground for proxy conflicts, the region must assert its authority, prioritising collective interests over external agendas.
A Framework for Shared Prosperity
The establishment of a shared maritime framework is not merely an aspiration, it is an urgent necessity. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), with its ongoing efforts to mobilise political and diplomatic support for its Red Sea and Gulf of Aden initiative, is uniquely positioned to lead this process. Working in synergy with the African Union, the United Nations, and other international partners, IGAD can help unify diverse interests and institutionalise cooperation.
However, this framework must be rooted in regional ownership. Solutions must emerge from within the region, reflecting its unique challenges and opportunities. International partners should serve as enablers, providing technical expertise, resources, and support without imposing their agendas.
A Vision for Collective Security and Development
The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are at a crossroads. The future of this critical maritime corridor must be guided by principles of cooperation, inclusion, and multilateralism. The region’s states must seize this moment to define a shared vision, one that secures maritime access, fosters economic development, and ensures the security of one of the world’s most vital waterways.
The stakes are too high to allow fragmentation or external domination to prevail. Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia, and their neighbours must come together to chart their course forward. The Red Sea’s future depends on the collective will of its people to build a sustainable and enduring legacy, one owned and safeguarded by the region itself. Only through regional leadership and unity can the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden fulfil their potential as a beacon of cooperation in a challenging world. AS
Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former Spokesperson of the IGAD Executive Secretary. He can be reached at nuur.ms@gmail.com
