Addis Ababa, August 5, 2023 (Walta) St. Petersburg, the cultural capital of Russia, was slammed last week organizing a gathering that meant really something to Russia’s international relations. The mayor of the city urged residents to stay at home and work from home during those days. The security situation was reportedly more stringent than it had ever been. The second Russia-Africa summit, which was scheduled for July 27 and 28, 2023, was the reason for all of that.
Hosting high-level conferences and heads of state is in fact nothing new for St. Petersburg. High-level gatherings like the G-8 and G-20, attended by the heads of state of world superpowers, had been held there. Why therefore is this particular summit of greater significance for Russia and St. Petersburg to regard it more seriously? What does Russia stand to gain in the summit? Most analysts appear to agree that Russia needed the summit to demonstrate to the world that, despite Western sanctions, it has still a wide range of allies throughout the globe.
Conversely, one thing remains undeniable. In the new Russia-West ‘cold war’, the summit put most African countries in a delicate situation. Up until the last few days, it was unknown how many heads of state had confirmed their presence. Therefore, according to the organizers, the “majority” was expected to attend. However, things changed on the day the spokesperson came forth and blatantly accused the US and France of pressing African heads of state not to attend the summit.
Underwhelming number of heads of state accepting Kremlin’s invitation
Despite the considerable attention Kremlin paid to the gathering and the preparation St Petersburg had made, the summit ended up with somewhat underwhelming number of heads of state of the continent being in attendance. Just 17 African heads of state were in St. Petersburg on the last day, despite the fact that 49 African delegations had confirmed their presence. This is a number far fewer than that of the gathering of the first summit in Sochi four years ago.
Washington, Paris, and other members of their bloc appear to be toasting, while Moscow expressed its frustration. It attributed the small number of leaders due at summit to a third party pressure. It blatantly blamed the west, especially the US and France.
The West affiliated media outlets and their analysts, for their part, preferred to hammer on the fact that fewer heads of state showed up for the summit. Many of them appeared to be rather biased in their reporting, portraying it as though there were only 17 African governments present at the summit. There were really more than 17 African states that participated in the summit, contrary to the distorted portrayal made by several media outlets and “analysts.” 49 African nations in all attended the summit. Although not represented by their heads of state, 32 additional nations were also represented. Some chose to send foreign ministers rather than heads of state.
As a matter of fact, all 43 of them were heads of state in the case of the first Russia- Africa summit back in 2019, which was widely regarded as the first significant meeting of African and Russian leaders since the fall of the Soviet Union. During the particular summit, over 50 contracts were allegedly signed by the two parties at the summit, which led to the conclusion of trade agreements totaling $12 billion. For Moscow at the time, a success story like this was a little challenging to achieve.
This is due to that really precarious position in which many African nations currently find themselves at. On the one hand, they need the help of Russia. On the other, there is an alleged pressure from the US, France and others. Hence, they had to navigate in between those two lines. They want to balance and prevent any possibility of getting drawn into taking sides in a new “Cold War”.
The Grain Politics and Who Stands to Gain What
Grain supply, security matters, trade, and arms were on the agenda of the 2nd Russia-Africa summit. The grain supply issue appeared to be receiving increasing political attention.
In order to make up the shortfall that resulted from Russia’s withdrawal from the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain deal that was intended to ensure the safe transport of grain both from Ukraine and Russia to Africa, Kremlin announced its plan to provide the grain needs of the continent by itself both on a commercial & free-of-charge basis,”. That included a pledge to provide six African countries with 25,000-50,000 tons of grain, including free delivery, to each of six African nations over the next three months. The free of charge pledge was made to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic, and Eritrea.
President Putin claimed to be able to replace “what Ukraine can no longer provide,” noting that “Russia’s share of the world grain is about 20%, whereas that of Ukraine is less than 5%” in his speech.
The west reacted negatively to the Kremlin’s conduct, accusing it of risking food security and of attempting to cover-up the consequences of the deal’s cancellation with a “handful of donations.” On its part, the Kremlin reminded everyone of the “hypocrisy” of the west.
Similarly, Moscow’s claim to increase trade and investment with and into Africa was the other topic that received a considerable attention. In this sense, pro-western analysts made every effort to persuade their audience that they were just hollow promises in this regard. They accomplish this by continually bringing up the fact that Russia had previously made similar pledges that failed to materialize. It is to be recalled that the Kremlin had pledged to double trade with the continent during the first Russia-Africa summit, which was held in Sochi, but that has not yet happened.
Most importantly, the Kremlin made use of the summit to send a clear message to the world in general and to Moscow’s adversaries in particular that it ‘is going to have Africa as it important ally’ in a ‘new multipolar world.’
An Africa attracting ‘ever more interest’ from world powers
“No entity aiming to influence global affairs in the decades to come can afford a passive Africa strategy,” the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) stressed in its 2021 version of the report titled “Major Power Rivalry in Africa.” After twenty years, the publication argues that the continent’s young and expanding work force and a quarter of the world’s population will be from Africa.
According to CFR, the natural riches of the continent—including cobalt and other rare earth metals vital to humanity’s technological future—along with its significant human capital will make it highly relevant to maintain close ties with.
In fact, rivalries for more powerful relationships and influence in Africa have intensified between nations like Russia, China, and the United States. These nations have been vying with one another for greater sway over Africa in an effort to portray themselves as the continent’s dominant and, if possible, “exclusive friend.”
In this context, summits have been held in the past few years alone; the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), the European Union-African Union (AU) Summit, the Tokyo International Conference on African Development, and the United States-Africa Leaders Summit among others. The purpose all those summits serve is to be used as a tool of leveraging geopolitical aspirations. Notably, the recent Russia- Africa was not an exception.
The ‘Moscow is back in Africa’ signal
In the last few couple of years alone, foreign ministers from super powers like the US and China repeatedly paid official visits to different African countries. In addition to China, other nations, notably those from the BRICS grouping, including Russia, have these days emerged as rivals to the US and European powers. The West, as Paul Melly- an analyst at the Chatham House– puts it, ‘find itself observing with deep unease Russia’s assertive return’.
In fact, Russia’s trade and investment portfolio in Africa gives it less competitive advantage when compared to that of China and Western countries. The total volume of exchange of goods between Russia and Africa has been a bit fluctuating. The figure for 2021 was 17.7 billion USD. Additionally, the greater portion of it, about 70%, is concentrated in just four countries: Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and South Africa.
Russia continues to be a significant supplier to the continent despite having a smaller trade and investment portfolio than the west and China. It continues to be the leading supplier of weaponry to Africa with a market share of 40% as well as the top provider of fertilizer and grains to the continent.
In addition, there is one area where Moscow clearly outperforms and outshouts the west in the race to win over Africans. It has not left any colonization scare in the continent. Not only that but also the former USSR was known for supporting numerous African nations in their fight for independence from Western powers. During the Cold War era, a number of African scholars including those who then managed to be heads of state studied in the Soviet Union’s various universities. Such historical context gives Moscow more political clout to gain more influence in Africa.
The first Russia- Africa summit held in Sochi in 2019 is believed to serve as a game changer in the overall ties between Russia and Africa. The summit was the largest gathering after the collapse of the Soviet Union that had resulted in a lower presence of Moscow in Africa. Russian military, political, and economic influence in Africa is now growing amid Western economic and political sanctions.
Following the Russia- Ukraine war, Russia sought a closer tie with African countries. At least eight official visits to a number of African countries have been undertaken by Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, since March 2022. That says a lot about how Russia views its future on the continent.
Since the Russia- Ukraine war broke out, the majority of African governments have made efforts to push for diplomatic solutions to end the war instead of siding with one party. They made an effort to steer clear of the “with us” or “against us” framing. The majority of nations decided to remain neutral, with the exception of those, like Eritrea, who publicly sided with Russia.
For many African nations, the tie with Russia remains important. It is no secret that they do strategically need as diversified financing options. Russia remains one of the top suppliers of grain, fertilizer, and arms to the continent. And it was worthwhile to attend the summit in St. Petersburg. On the other side, their presence in St. Petersburg can in no way delight New York, Washington, or Paris (for the UN) and they know it.
To have Russia as an ally without risking their ties with the West and the US, they thus had to make every effort to cautiously tread the road of diplomatic neutrality so that they are perceived as independent geopolitical actors. Have they been able to achieve that? Only time will tell.
By Bewket Abebe
